Gigabit Broadband Set to Accelerate on Back of Fiber Roll Out

Gigabit broadband growth is set to confound most predictions and increase almost 10-fold in penetration to reach over 31% of households on average globally over the next five years, compared with 3% to 4% today.

This prediction has come from leading UK based analyst group Rethink Technology Research, which specializes in video, wireless and Internet of Things (IoT).

The report from the group’s Rethink TV Forecasting unit entitled “US left in China’s wake in the quest for Gigabit broadband – Forecast and Report to 2023” predicts that some more developed countries such as the USA, France, Switzerland and South Korea, will achieve even higher penetration of 50% of by 2023. However, notable exceptions include the UK and Germany which will lag the curve of advanced nations, as less surprisingly will much of Latin America. China meanwhile will close the penetration gap significantly on the leaders and make a big impact on overall numbers given its high population, increasing from 4% of its 456 million households to 42%, following a series of massive build-outs led by China Mobile. %. Indeed, China which will deploy 193.5 million ports of 1 Gbps broadband by 2023 propelling the Asian total to 232.5 million, 68% of the global 340.5 million.

The main factor driving growth will be ongoing roll out of FTTH (Fiber To The Home) as many countries adopt “fiber first” initiatives in preference to seeking a cheaper route via copper upgrades. At the same time the report identifies a “landgrab for apartment dwellers who live in MDUs, with high speed internet offerings, if not always quite at the 1 Gbps level.” The report concedes that most homes do not need 1 Gbps yet but as it becomes available inevitably services will arise that exploit it. One consequence could be more availability of Ultra HD video content given that is a major driver of demand for higher bit rates.

The Rethink report argues that as fiber momentum picks up, the window of opportunity will close for G.fast, G.Now and MoCA Access as cable or copper-based alternatives as more buildings opt for fiber direct to the home or apartment. However, the report notes one major exception in DOCSIS 3.1, at least in the USA where it is triggering cable based 1 Gbps installations, with a promise to go even higher to 10 Gbps eventually.

While globally 1 Gbps lines are forecast to make up 31% of all broadband by 2023, the fiber penetration will be almost double that at 60% when lines below that speed are counted. 

Let us know what you think…

Log-in or Register for free to post comments…

You might also like...

“Orbital Redux” Soars in Live Video Production

Last Fall, “Orbital Redux” broke new ground for streaming entertainment as a live, scripted multi-episode sci-fi drama in which the audience determined the outcome of the action.

Essential Guide: Live IP Delivery

Broadcasting used to be simple. It required one TV station sending one signal to multiple viewers. Everyone received the same imagery at the same time. That was easy.

Essential Guide: Reality of IP

As broadcasters migrate to IP, the spotlight is focusing more and more on IT infrastructure. Quietly in the background, IT has been making unprecedented progress in infrastructure design to deliver low latency high-speed networks, and new highly adaptable business models,…

IP Explored - ST2110 and ST2022

As broadcasters accelerate IP migration we must move from a position of theory to that of practical application. Whether we’re building a greenfield site or transitioning through a hybrid solution, simply changing SDI components with analogous IP replacements will n…

Edgeware Reports Peak CDN Traffic Doubling During FIFA World Cup Matches

Most CDNs (Content Delivery Networks) and the video streaming services they support have coped well with the peak time loads of the current FIFA World Cup, beyond a few well publicized glitches.