The Future Of American Television?

To maximize the “wow factor,” a new technology must be undeniably better, faster and/or cheaper. It must also have sufficient impact to knock everyone’s socks off, like flat-panel HDTV compared to a NTSC 19” Trinitron TV. NextGen TV technology is learning to crawl before it knocks everyone’s socks off, and the NAB and FCC are leading the way.
The dustbin of notorious broadcast technology failures is littered with great ideas that weren’t exactly ready for prime time. New tech, such as 3D TV, AM Stereo, and Apple Macintosh TV (introduced in 1993) failed because consumers didn’t care. The consumer Betamax and Panasonic M2 tape formats were superior technologies but colossal marketing failures. Post-CRT flat screen advancements such as plasma TVs, rear-projection TVs, and curved displays were impressive, pricy and filled with short-life issues.
Panasonic debuted its 42” plasma TV screen at the 2001 Las Vegas NAB at a retail cost of over $10,000 USD. Over the next year, Vegas casinos were filled with expensive plasma displays, mostly dim a year later and trashed by fixed-image burn-in. Big flat panel displays were the future of TV, but plasma was a failure.
Steps In The Right Direction
The broadcast tech dustbin list shows that new technology breakthroughs can dramatically improve and replace frustrating old dustbin tech. For example, videotape was the ultimate form of old-school, electro-mechanical TV recording and playback technology. Solenoids, motors, gears, moving parts and moving media made VTRs work. Today, digital video on memory sticks and servers have virtually replaced pro audio and video magnetic tape, and rightfully so. Who has time to shuttle tape these days? It’s so 20th century.
The DTV transition in the early 2000s was incredibly easy because the FCC implemented a plan providing inexpensive analog TV to digital TV converters to consumers, sold at nearly 8000 Radio Shack stores, Walmart, and elsewhere. It was cheap, easy, and nobody complained.
The all-IP data transition to ATSC 3.0 seemed like it should be nearly as simple, but in fact ATSC 3.0 broadcasting is far more complicated than ATSC 1.0 for good reason. Is ATSC 3.0 a private RF gold mine that broadcasters are just scratching the surface of?
Repack Blessing
Clearly, repacked US TV stations have a financial advantage in the transition because the FCC bought them new transmitters and antennas to change channels. Many chose to pay extra to add ATSC 3.0 capabilities.
However, ATSC 3.0 generally requires more Transmitter Power Output, with can be a transmission feedline weight issue with tall towers. Some existing tall towers may not be capable of supporting the additional weight of larger rigid transmission lines without major structural upgrades.
Broadcasters have taller towers and more Effective Radiated Power than anyone else in town. The best way for public safety entities to optimize RF coverage inside local metal buildings and skyscrapers is with a full-power, tall-tower TV broadcast signal, licensed and designed to penetrate nearly everything.
PBS Wildcard
According to ATSC, NextGen TV is being broadcast by at least one station in at least 89 US markets. Most markets have three to five NextGen TV sources on the air, mostly broadcast by a single ATSC 3.0 lighthouse station which is often the local DMA PBS affiliate.
How the recent Corporation for Public Broadcasting (CPB) “shut down” after defunding by the US Congress will affect PBS lighthouse stations is unclear at this moment, but CPB reports that most staff positions will be eliminated when its fiscal year ends on 30 September. A small transition team will stay in place until January 2026. The CPB shutdown effect on ATSC 3.0 lighthouse stations promises to be the Wild Card of 2026 NextGen TV.
Every market is different, and the relationship between commercial and public broadcasters will be tested in each one. If the FCC or PBS has a Plan B, nobody has mentioned it yet.
To be clear, PBS and NPR are not being cancelled. Public stations are actively fundraising and reporting “significant donations,” suggesting that many stations plan to continue operations.
Patent Commotion
ATSC 3.0 is a giant collection of brilliant ideas from a wide variety of organizations, companies and individuals. Some were patented, some were not. Today, nearly everyone that contributed divergent ATSC 3.0 technical details wants patent payments from broadcast and consumer product manufacturers. The ATSC is working with the owners of more than 100 patents to ensure everyone gets their fair share and the patent commotion seems to be diminishing. On the other hand, some ATSC 3.0 patents have time limits and will expire.
A TV full-power TV station I worked with in Springfield MO also owned a company that created cartoons and animated dolls that watched TV and reacted to specific audio and visual cues. We successfully tested the technology on our ATSC 1.0 station in 2010.
A couple of their patents were included in ATSC 3.0, and they quickly settled with ATSC. Hundreds of similar tangential patent scenarios were built into ATSC 3.0 because many engineers hurried to contribute to ATSC 3.0 technologies without a complete business plan.
FCC/NAB NextGen TV Update
The NAB and FCC have begun working together to move ATSC 3.0 forward in the marketplace. On February 26, 2025, NAB filed a Petition in the FCC docket seeking rulemaking for a broadcast television transition to ATSC 3.0. The FCC released a Public Notice seeking comment about the “Future of Television” on 7 April 2025. Comments were due on 7 May 2025.
NAB proposes that the Commission mandate a two phase transition deadline. In the first phase of the NAB proposal, full-power stations in the top 55 markets (about 70 percent of viewers) would be required to fully transition to ATSC 3.0 and end ATSC 1.0 simulcasting in February 2028, with limited waivers for smaller and noncommercial stations. The second phase of the NAB proposal requires stations in the remaining markets to transition fully to ATSC 3.0 and terminate ATSC 1.0 transmission in February 2030.
NAB also proposes that the Commission impose an ATSC 3.0 tuner mandate to “ensure that consumers who buy new TVs can continue receiving broadcast programming.” Specifically, NAB asks the Commission to amend section 15.117 of its rules to require that all TV broadcast receivers include 3.0 tuners, pursuant to the Commission’s authority under the 1962 All Channel Receiver Act (ACRA), when UHF channels were added.
In the petition, the Commission said, “It expects the ‘fundamental use’ of television broadcast spectrum to continue to be the provision of free, over-the-air television service. The FCC has not yet addressed the question of how much ‘spectral capacity’ a Next Gen TV station must ultimately devote to free, over-the-air television service.” SD, HD, 4K or ?
The Commission also received thousands of consumer comments objecting to broadcasters employing the use of Digital Rights Management encryption on their ATSC 3.0 signals over public airwaves. The complaints state that such action has resulted in the consumer’s inability to receive programming despite having purchased an ATSC 3.0-enabled device. All ATSC 3.0 DRM Certificates expire in 10, 15, 20 or 30 years.
In the petition, the FCC asks, "What steps can or should the industry and/or the Commission take to ensure broadcasters are able to protect their content and signal, while also ensuring viewers are able to continue to view a station’s free over-the-air signal in ATSC 3.0 just as they do today?"
Meanwhile, NextGen TV proponent Pearl TV says that “Unprotected signals can easily be intercepted, ‘deep faked’ and redistributed without permission.” Pearl TV went on to say, “Preventing this problem in advance can be accomplished with the essential security protocols and capabilities inherent in ATSC 3.0.”
The Diginet Future
NextGen TV is all about providing more targeted content than providing the best pictures ever broadcast on TV. Some viewers like that, some don’t.
Dot two, dot three, etc., TV diginet channels provide an easy way for TV stations to generate extra revenue at the expense of ATSC 1.0 bandwidth. Bandwidth demands in ATSC 3.0 are an issue that automatically resolves diginet bandwidth needs, so long as a sufficient internet connection exists at the receiver. Otherwise, the magic of ATSC 3.0 disappears.
Diginet channels only need to be recognized by the PSIP (Program and System Information Protocol) to seamlessly connect station viewers to the desired private internet stream, unique to the station. It operates exactly as it did in ATSC 1.0, inserting local commercials, IDs and EAS. Non-RF Diginet channels are not available without internet service.
Where To Next?
All TV station groups have ambitious plans for ATSC 3.0. Most are held close to the vest. Some are excited about the Broadcast Internet. Others are excited about Broadcast GPS. Others are looking at data to and from mobile sources, knowing that the big market is home or mobile receivers for non-entertainment data. Who knows?
All that ATSC 3.0 broadcasters need is a market. The FCC’s push to require ATSC 3.0 tuners in all TVs will build it. The beauty of NextGen TV is that it remains a blank canvas, with each group exploring various features, all in search of advantages and benefits within ATSC 3.0 transmission with a fresh potential to generate money. All we need is mores receivers.
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